American Crossroads released a poll last week showing that a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate was a distinct possibility, if not a probability. Democrats consistently poll behind Republicans in head-to-head ballot tests, and voters like Republican messages of limited government and low taxation against democrat messages of increased government intervention and more spending.
Not surprisingly, the left freaked-out over the findings, assailing the methodology (nevermind an earlier iteration of the survey was created by Clinton polling genius Stanley Greenberg) and findings as politically motivated gobbledeegook.
But a cursory look at current head-to-head polls shows that if the election were held today, Republicans would actually take the senate!
Republicans currently hold 41 seats in the Senate, and need a pickup of 10 seats to gain control of the chamber. They are currently protecting 5 relatively vulnerable seats, while the Democrats are defending twelve.
Republicans hold reasonably strong leads in all of their defensive seats (+10 in Kentucky, +7 in Missouri, +7 in Ohio, +5 in Florida and +3 in New Hampshire (where the likely GOP candidate Kelly Ayotte has taken a severe beating in the primary).
And at this moment, Republicans lead Democrats in nine of their 12 competitive contests – with a literal tie in Illinois, down three in Washington (although votes there are complicated due to the GOP primary battle) and down just seven in Connecticut, which was nearly written off by the prognosticators just a few months ago. I just flipped a coin and it landed heads. If it did in that race on Election Day, Republicans would pick up the Senate – and likely the House to boot.